Representation by Simon Pirani
- Date submitted
- 2 February 2023
- Submitted by
- Members of the public/businesses
What I consider to be the main issues about the Lower Thames Crossing 1. Construction of the Lower Thames Crossing runs counter to the government’s Net Zero Strategy, which requires reductions in transport sector emissions of 42-56 MtCO2e/year by 2030, and of 81-94 MtCO2e/year by 2035 (Net Zero Strategy 2021, page 154). The UK is falling short of these targets. Lord Deben, chair of the Climate Change Committee, has told the government that, compared to the CCC estimate of transport sector reductions needed by 2030, 68 MtCO2e/year (higher than the government’s), the CCC projects a shortfall of 14 MtCO2e/year due to a “policy gap”, and a further 42 MtCO2e/year “at risk due to lack of firm policies and measures or those with delivery risks”. (Letter from Lord Deben to ministers, 11 October 2018.) The situation has not improved since these estimates were made. The failure to cut transport sector emissions could be described as a national emergency. If the LTC is built, it will make this emergency worse. Using figures in the first planning application, I estimated that, during construction, the LTC would each year add more than 0.3% of 2019 emissions. During sixty years of use, the LTC would each year add more than 0.04% of 2019 domestic transport emissions. This time period that stretches between four and six decades past the point at which transport sector emissions should be reduced to zero. Using the figures in chapter 15 of the environmental statement would produce higher percentages. 2. In addition to these direct effects, indirect effects include: a. The opportunity cost of financial and other resources being put into the LTC, instead of into projects that rapidly reduce transport sector emissions. b. The cumulative effect of building more roads, including the induced traffic effect and stimulation of vehicle purchases, all of which impacts negatively on emissions reduction. 3. Proper account should be taken of research showing that all new fossil-fuel-intensive infrastructure will put climate targets further out of reach. Roads are fossil-fuel-intensive, and will continue to be so for decades, even if the most optimistic prognoses of the effect of the introduction of electric vehicles are realised. This research includes: a. Dan Tong et al, “Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5degC climate target”, Nature vol. 572 (2019), pages 373-377.) (This shows that existing energy, transport and built infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 Gt CO2, compared to a total global budget of 420-580 Gt CO2 to achieve the 1.5°C target, and 1170-1500 Gt CO2 to achieve the 2°C target.) b. Felix Creutzig et al, “Urban infrastructure choices structure climate solutions”, Nature Climate Change vol. 6 (2016), pages 1054-1056. c. Steven Davis et al, “Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure”, Science vol. 329 (September 2010), pages 1330-1332.) (end)