Representation by Dr Sally Dixon
- Date submitted
- 28 September 2018
- Submitted by
- Members of the public/businesses
The UK, and in particular the South East, has a rapidly increasing shortage of airport runway capacity. Government policy is to maximise use of the UK’s existing runways. Manston Airport has an existing runway with a 100-year history. It is therefore unthinkable that this vital asset could be destroyed.
Local significance As a resident of East Kent (and author of the Azimuth Report for RSP), I am acutely aware of the impact high unemployment and a lack of skilled jobs have on the aspirations of Thanet’s young people. Persistent high levels of deprivation in the area do nothing to encourage children to continue in education and training after school. As a potentially huge job creator, Manston is not only nationally significant infrastructure, vital, I believe, to the UK’s economy but also highly significant to the life chances of local people.
The future of aviation Innovations are impacting the aviation sector at a fast pace, with the effect of electric/hybrid aircraft and unmanned air vehicles likely to be substantial. These technologies will be cleaner, quieter, and more cost efficient, bringing with them an array of possibilities. We therefore need to retain existing airfields, particularly one such as Manston with its long runway. Allowing airfields to be used for housing may jeopardise the future wellbeing of the UK’s economy.
Dedicated freighters Existing constraints on slots for freighters in the South East is evidenced by testimony from industry and airport data. UK data shows the proportion of freight on passenger aircraft compared to freighters is the reverse of the figure in the rest of the world. Security issues, the drive to reduce delivery times, and the rise in demand from ‘thin routes’ where passenger aircraft are simply not sufficient to carry the volumes of freight predicted, are highly likely to affect demand for dedicated freighters. Airports generally preference passenger traffic since this market is better understood by airport managers. Having focused on passenger aircraft, airports seek to ‘turn’ aircraft as quickly as possible. This is particularly true for the low cost carrier market where 45-minute turnarounds are the aim. Freighter aircraft may require several hours on a stand whilst they wait for cargo to clear security and customs checks, effectively wrecking the business model for a passenger-focused airport.
Forecasting from past performance In many arenas, historic data is not a good indicator of future performance. In the mid to late 1990s I was involved in forecasting the impact of e-commerce on industry. Using past data was simply not viable and only inexperienced or foolhardy practitioners would attempt a straight-line regression in these situations. Aviation is one of these situations. Therefore, for commentators to say Manston Airport is not viable simply because it has not performed well in the past is a mistake. Given global predictions for the future of aviation, the government cannot afford to give permission to build houses on airfields in the UK. Manston Airport, with its particularly long runway, is nationally significant infrastructure and to lose it could be disastrous.