Representation by Hugh Langston
- Date submitted
- 2 October 2018
- Submitted by
- Members of the public/businesses
It my understanding that the job of the Planning Inspectorate will be to weigh the business case for the airport proposal against the negative effects for the investors and the community. The business case for the airport is described in the Azimuth Report, however this is contradicted by the Falcon Consultancy report, the Avia Solutions report and the York Aviation report and critiqued in the Altitude Aviation reports, summarised below:
Falcon conclusions: ‘It is not unique among the UK’s regional airports in failing to secure a scale of aviation activities that will cover the cost of its aviation related operation. It is fortunate among regional airports in its location in the S.E. so close to London, for, given significant improvement in road and rail links to the capital, it could compete as a London airport. The trigger to revival would seem to be a fast rail link to London and the protracted timescale needed to properly address the saturation of the S. E. airports.’
Avia Solutions Conclusions: 8.2. ‘It is Avia Solutions’ view that having considered the stakeholder interviews and independent research and analysis into historic accounts and ‘reasonable’ adjustments for one-off costs that there is little prospect of a financially viable airport on the site. The only circumstances in which we believe the airport may be viable is that in which no new runway was to developed in the South East of England. However, this scenario presents extreme risk to the investor, as a decision to increase runway capacity at those not physically constrained (e.g. legally constrained LHR and STN) could be made at any time, or a new runway may be authorised at any time in the future.’
York conclusions: 7.1 ‘In this report, we have examined the case for RSP’s proposed development at Manston Airport. Our overall assessment is that RSP have failed to provide their own evidence of the capability of Manston Airport and the amount by which their proposals would increase that capability by (all we have are forecasts which have no credibility as explained in this report). This results in glairing omissions in RSP's consultation material.’
Altitude Aviation critique: 82. ‘It is highly unlikely that a re-opened Manston could play any significant role in serving the needs of the UK air cargo industry. There is currently no shortage of overall capacity, and future demand growth into the long term can be met with planned expansion from the leading cargo airports in the UK.’
It should be noted that Azimuth was founded in 2016 with [Redacted] its sole owner and consultant. Falcon Consultancy was founded in 1996 with 10 consultants, Avia Solutions was founded in 2001 with 12 consultants, York Aviation was founded in 2002 with 8 consultants and Altitude Aviation was founded in 2013 with 7 consultants.
From the above reports, for Manston to succeed, a high-speed rail link is necessary, no additional runways developed in the SE, no more expansion at other UK airports and a real indication that cargo companies will relocate to the airport.
These concerns, specifically the last, would indicate a high risk of failure for the investors, and thereafter subsequent uses for the site. The fact that the proposed capacity is deemed sufficient for acceptance of the DCO, the business case and funding should be fully tested at the examination phase.