Representation by Sylvie Bolioli
- Date submitted
- 8 October 2018
- Submitted by
- Members of the public/businesses
I’m hereby formulating my concerns over the proposal made by River Oak Strategic Partners to acquire the site of former Manston Airport.
First of all, I was not informed about the consultation dates although I live under the flight path in Ramsgate. I did attend a consultation in 2017 at the Comfort Inn in Ramsgate, which I found out about on social networks but didn’t hear about the last one so I missed it.
Mostly, I used to work as a Marketing Consultant specializing in Commercial Due Diligence in Mergers, Acquisitions and Capital Ventures. I tried to read as much as I could from the online documentation on the RSP website, which is not user friendly at all by the way. And whether the local population agrees with the proposal of a mega cargo hub or not, I’m appalled at the level of research into the commercial viability of a project of such a magnitude. The business plan is flawed in many aspects, inconsistent and does not reflect the realities of the current market, with erroneous interpretations. Just one concrete example as I also have a job and my time scrutinizing the report prepared by Azymuth Associates is limited: The report claims that Southampton Airport handled 185,000 tonnes in 2015, a 39% increase from the previous year, concluding that there's a lack of capacity and a huge demand for cargo movements in the South East.
Well, Figures from the CAA are as follow (Cargo - tonnes): 2001 - 332 2002 - 382 2003 - 322 2004 - 272 2005 - 204 2006 - 195 2007 - 297 2008 - 264 2009 - 209 2010 - 116 2011 - 132 2012 - 359 2013 - 133 2014 - 133 2015 - 185 2016 - 176
No due diligence would draw such conclusion from one photographic instant on the timeline. In the same vein, it would be erroneous to say that cargo is in disarray because it has dropped from 359,000 to 133,000 tonnes since 2012. The market has been irregular year-on-year. But overall it has been constantly stable, far from a 39% perceived growth. The report is full of such misleading indicators interpreted as a sign of a massive market potential.
The report clearly does not establish the need for such an airport in South East of England, let alone in the UK, as the market does not warrant it.
It is also vastly misleading, implying that East Kent could benefit from a number of phantom jobs, 30,000, which do not proportionally match levels of employment at other airport facilities across the country. Of course, with the Butterfly effect, it could be argued that a working mega cargo hub at Manston Airport will benefit coffee growers in Kenya, who will sell more coffee to the night shifts people employed to unload cargo planes. But in my career as a Marketing consultant, presenting alongside the likes of [Redacted] (Financial Due Diligence) and the now defunct [Redacted] (Legal Due Diligence), not once was the Butterfly Effect taken into consideration as it would obviously distort and corrupt the real potential figures. Besides, all the highly qualified positions would not be filled by local candidates as the vast majority of unemployed individuals in East Kent is unskilled. So the number of local jobs that the re-opening of Manston Airport would create remains unclear.
I attended the Ramsgate consultation in 2017 with my commercial diligence hat on. I was appalled to be told by RSP Director [Redacted] that "Thanet and Kent people are stupid, that’s why we go higher”. He added that "Manston would take business away from Frankfurt". I asked about the evidence. He could not answer me but said that I could find all the information in a flash drive he gave me. Well, there was no evidence. If any, the cargo market has been stagnant for the past few years. And even if it is projected to grow again in 2018, wider passenger aircrafts with increased belly-hold capacity have reduced the total yield from full cargo freights, which are more expensive.
Finally one of the Directors of RSP, former solicitor and Director of Manston Airport [Redacted], led the airport to its demise in 2014. The airport has been deemed not commercially viable, so perhaps not entirely his fault. But how could investors trust someone who has been struck off from the Solicitors' roll in 1992 for… misappropriation of clients funds?
In clear, I cannot quite see any ROI for the Belize based consortium of investors.
However, what is quite apparent is that the Manston site does not have permission for change of use yet, which means that without planning permission the site’s value is very attractive to a potential real estate investor, which is Riveroak's original area of expertise.
I am not going to comment on other issues like noise, pollution, heritage as those are not my areas of expertise. But other competent people have carried out extensive and comprehensive research and revealed more misleading and/or erroneous information, or lack of information in the documents or response to questions regarding issues such as night flights, noise, impact on a heritage action zone, fuel farm….
I trust that the authorities in power will have enough insight and common sense to reject RSP’s proposal as I cannot see any future in this venture.
Kind regards
Sylvie Bolioli