Representation by Andrew St Pierre
- Date submitted
- 25 October 2023
- Submitted by
- Members of the public/businesses
Gatwick’s Expansion plans will create so much motorway and local road congestion that they will damage the rest of the economy and leave no room for extra travel capacity for journeys , both car and lorry freight, from the ports and Channel Tunnel to the rest of the UK, or within the area south of London. THEREFORE Gatwick must not be allowed to bring the standby runway into routine use, nor to expand beyond its current single runway configuration. DETAIL A. Car journeys: 1. 45.7m passengers currently, 39% by rail, av. 4 air passengers per car : total road journeys per year: 6,969.250 2. 70m passengers, 45% using rail, av. 4 air passengers per car: total road journeys per year: a. 9,625,000 each way: being 2,655,750 x 2 extra = 5,311,500, or if only one air passenger per car: extra 21,246,000 3. 75m passengers, 45% using rail, av. 4 people per car: total road journeys per year: a. 10,312,500, being extra: 3,343,250 x 2 = 6,686,500, or if only one air passenger per car: extra 26,746,000 4. Therefore: the LOWER range is from 5,311,500 to 26,746,000 extra vehicle journeys per year on the roads. 5. BUT not everyone will park on-site at the airport (anyway Gatwick plans no capacity for that), therefore some will be delivered and collected by taxi or friends and relatives, which increases the number of the car journeys yet again. B. How many park on site? 1. Gatwick planned on-site parking capacity (Master Plan 4.3.36) 43,500, of which 6,200 for staff (MP 2.3.30). Therefore 37,300 for passengers. 2. Turnover of car spaces per year: a. Maximum possible: If passengers stay just for one day, then capacity is 37,500 x 365 = 13,687,500 b. If passengers stay for one week on average, then capacity = 37,500 x 52 = 1,950,000 c. ASSUME 50% stay one day and 50% stay one week on average: d. Therefore total capacity: (13,687,500 /2) + (1,950,000/2) = 7,818,750. e. ASSUME capacity is always fully used C. How many off-site journeys? 1. 70m passengers through the airport, av 4 air passengers per car: a. Total one-way journeys 9,625,000 (from above) less on-site parking 7,818,750 = 1,806,250 off site 2. 75m passengers through airport, av 4 passengers per car: a. Total one way journeys 10,312,500 from above less on-site parking 7,818,750 = 2,493.750 off-site D. Total number of car journeys 1. at 70m passengers through the airport: a. Journey to/from the airport for everyone, PLUS the two extra deliver/collect journeys by taxis/friends/relatives for the off-site parking: b. Passengers’ journeys: from above: 5,311,500 c. Off-site drivers’ journeys:1,806,250 x 2 = 3,612,500 d. TOTAL: 8,924,000 = EXTRA 24,449 car journeys per day 2. At 75m passengers through the airport: a. Journey to/from the airport for everyone, PLUS the two extra journeys by taxis/friends/relatives for the off-site parking: b. Passengers’ journeys: from above: 6,686,500 c. Off-site drivers’ journeys:2,493,750 x 2 = 4,987,500 d. TOTAL: 11,674,000 = 31,983 EXTRA car journeys per day E. Average car occupancy 1. These figures assume an average of 4 air passengers per car, - not per journey as the delivery/collection journeys are made by taxis or friends/relatives. 2. Is this figure of 4 people correct? 3. If the average number of air passengers per car is fewer, say two, then the number of journeys DOUBLES F. Impact on Motorways 1. Given that Gatwick is aiming to be a hub airport with global connections, we can assume that these daily vehicle journeys will be long distance, therefore using the motorways – including the M25. 2. The two choke points on the M25 (Dartford Crossing and junctions 13-14) average 180,000 and 200,000 vehicles total per day, total 380,000 vehicles. (sources are M25 and Dartford Crossing websites) 3. Additional vehicles hitting the choke points: a. at 70m passengers (24,449/380,000) = 6.4% b. at 75m passengers (31,983/380,000)= 8.4% c. or if average 2 people per car, then 12.8% and 16.8% respectively. 4. To give some perspective: a. In terms of queuing, and assuming each car is 4m long (slightly less than a Renault Clio) then the queue lengths would be: b. At 70 m passengers: (24,449 x 4)/1,609.344 = 60.76 miles c. At 75m passengers: (31,983 x 4)/1,609.344 = 79.49 miles d. If average 2 people per car then the queues are double the length: about 120 miles and 160 miles respectively – more than the entire length of a single carriageway of the M25.