Representation by The Merry Opera Company Limited (The Merry Opera Company Limited)
- Date submitted
- 25 October 2023
- Submitted by
- Members of the public/businesses
HEADLINE: Gatwick's Expansion Master Plan 2019 shows that number of extra car journeys PER DAY will between 24,449 and 31,983, assuming average 4 people per car. This is equivalent to a traffic queue between 61 and 79 miles long. SUMMARY: A. If average 4 people per car, the total extra car journeys (i.e. to and from the airport) will be: a. At 70m passengers per year: 5,311,500 per year (i.e. 2.655m x 2 see detail below) b. At 75m passengers per year: 6,686,500 per year (i.e. 3,343,250 x 2 see detail below) B. Allowing for on-site car parking and for taxis/friends/relatives delivering and collecting passengers who do not park on site (see detail for assumptions), the extra road traffic generated will be as follows: a. At 70m passengers p/a: 8,924,000 p/a = EXTRA 24,449 car journeys per day at av. 4 air passengers per vehicle b. At 75m passengers p/a: 11,674,000 p/a = EXTRA 31,983 car journeys per day at av. 4 passengers per vehicle C. These would be added to the motorway system, because if, as it states, Gatwick’s expansion is intended to create a global hub airport of the size of Heathrow, then its target market must be long distance. a. At 70m passengers, these vehicles add 6.4% to the traffic at the notorious junction 13/14 and Dartford Crossing choke points. b. At 75m they add 7.4%. c. If the average vehicle occupancy is 2 people, then the addition to the choke points is 12.8% and 14.8% respectively. See below for detailed assumptions. D. This may not sound much, but the choke points are already heavily congested. E. Assuming each extra vehicle is 4m long (slightly less than a Renault Clio) then the extra queues generated would be, with occupancy average 4 people: a. at 70m passengers: 60 miles b. at 75m passengers: 79 miles c. doubled if average occupancy at 2 people. F. Staff journeys and airport off-site parking journeys are omitted from these figures. a. Staff journeys would increase as the airport grows; they will most probably be local journeys, with a corresponding increase in local traffic on the already heavily used roads, the exact increase depending on how many people share cars or use buses b. Off-airport passenger parking: The current capacity is 21,196 (MP2019 page 37). c. This is long-term parking, but being generous and assuming average stays of only one week, the maximum capacity is 21,196 x 52 = 1,102,192 vehicles per year, currently totalling 3,019 cars per day. d. To create any meaningful reduction in the extra long distance motorway car journeys made by taxis/friends/relatives mentioned above, there would have to be a huge increase in the number of off-airport car parking spaces. e. Any motorway travel reductions would be counterbalanced by the additional local airport/off-site back and forth travel needed as the car parks are enlarged. f. This reduction may not be one for one, because much of the travel to and from the car parks might be with buses carrying more than 4 air passengers at a time. g. Nevertheless, this extra travel increases the load on the local roads. h. Therefore any increase in off-airport site parking merely shifts the extra road journeys from the already congested M25 to already congested local roads. i. Either way, congestion, the enemy of connectivity, increases. THEREFORE: Gatwick’s Expansion plans will create so much motorway and local road congestion that they will damage the rest of the economy and leave no room for extra travel capacity for journeys , both car and lorry freight, from the ports and Channel Tunnel to the rest of the UK, or within the area south of London. THEREFORE Gatwick must not be allowed to bring the standby runway into routine use, nor to expand beyond its current single runway configuration. DETAIL A. Car journeys: 1. 45.7m passengers currently, 39% by rail, av. 4 air passengers per car : total road journeys per year: 6,969.250 2. 70m passengers, 45% using rail, av. 4 air passengers per car: total road journeys per year: a. 9,625,000 each way: being 2,655,750 x 2 extra = 5,311,500, or if only one air passenger per car: extra 21,246,000 3. 75m passengers, 45% using rail, av. 4 people per car: total road journeys per year: a. 10,312,500, being extra: 3,343,250 x 2 = 6,686,500, or if only one air passenger per car: extra 26,746,000 4. Therefore: the LOWER range is from 5,311,500 to 26,746,000 extra vehicle journeys per year on the roads. 5. BUT not everyone will park on-site at the airport (anyway Gatwick plans no capacity for that), therefore some will be delivered and collected by taxi or friends and relatives, which increases the number of the car journeys yet again. B. How many park on site? 1. Gatwick planned on-site parking capacity (Master Plan 4.3.36) 43,500, of which 6,200 for staff (MP 2.3.30). Therefore 37,300 for passengers. 2. Turnover of car spaces per year: a. Maximum possible: If passengers stay just for one day, then capacity is 37,500 x 365 = 13,687,500 b. If passengers stay for one week on average, then capacity = 37,500 x 52 = 1,950,000 c. ASSUME 50% stay one day and 50% stay one week on average: d. Therefore total capacity: (13,687,500 /2) + (1,950,000/2) = 7,818,750. e. ASSUME capacity is always fully used C. How many off-site journeys? 1. 70m passengers through the airport, av 4 air passengers per car: a. Total one-way journeys 9,625,000 (from above) less on-site parking 7,818,750 = 1,806,250 off site 2. 75m passengers through airport, av 4 passengers per car: a. Total one way journeys 10,312,500 from above less on-site parking 7,818,750 = 2,493.750 off-site D. Total number of car journeys 1. at 70m passengers through the airport: a. Journey to/from the airport for everyone, PLUS the two extra deliver/collect journeys by taxis/friends/relatives for the off-site parking: b. Passengers’ journeys: from above: 5,311,500 c. Off-site drivers’ journeys:1,806,250 x 2 = 3,612,500 d. TOTAL: 8,924,000 = EXTRA 24,449 car journeys per day 2. At 75m passengers through the airport: a. Journey to/from the airport for everyone, PLUS the two extra journeys by taxis/friends/relatives for the off-site parking: b. Passengers’ journeys: from above: 6,686,500 c. Off-site drivers’ journeys:2,493,750 x 2 = 4,987,500 d. TOTAL: 11,674,000 = 31,983 EXTRA car journeys per day E. Average car occupancy 1. These figures assume an average of 4 air passengers per car, - not per journey as the delivery/collection journeys are made by taxis or friends/relatives. 2. Is this figure of 4 people correct? 3. If the average number of air passengers per car is fewer, say two, then the number of journeys DOUBLES F. Impact on Motorways 1. Given that Gatwick is aiming to be a hub airport with global connections, we can assume that these daily vehicle journeys will be long distance, therefore using the motorways – including the M25. 2. The two choke points on the M25 (Dartford Crossing and junctions 13-14) average 180,000 and 200,000 vehicles total per day, total 380,000 vehicles. (sources are M25 and Dartford Crossing websites) 3. Additional vehicles hitting the choke points: a. at 70m passengers (24,449/380,000) = 6.4% b. at 75m passengers (31,983/380,000)= 8.4% c. or if average 2 people per car, then 12.8% and 16.8% respectively. 4. To give some perspective: a. In terms of queuing, and assuming each car is 4m long (slightly less than a Renault Clio) then the queue lengths would be: b. At 70 m passengers: (24,449 x 4)/1,609.344 = 60.76 miles c. At 75m passengers: (31,983 x 4)/1,609.344 = 79.49 miles d. If average 2 people per car then the queues are double the length: about 120 miles and 160 miles respectively – more than the entire length of a single carriageway of the M25.