Representation by Safe Landing (Safe Landing)
- Date submitted
- 11 November 2023
- Submitted by
- Non-statutory organisations
GATWICK AIRPORT: POORLY TIMED EXPANSION PLANS Safe Landing is a group of professionals within the aviation industry: pilots, cabin crew, airline, airport staff, air traffic controllers, aerospace engineers and factory workers. THE RISK TO WORKERS We’re worried about the economic risk to workers' livelihoods if our industry leaders plan for a massive growth in flights, which is then incredibly unlikely to materialise - and then continue - as climate impacts accelerate. First and foremost, we care about protecting the jobs and skills of the future. We want an industry that is sustainable in the long-term, not one propped-up on false assumptions that will fail us again - as with Covid - and lead to a fresh round of redundancies, later this decade. CONCERNS OVER AIR TRAFFIC GROWTH We’re concerned about the trajectory of our sector. In particular, the growth of air travel, and what this means for greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and climate change. We see the current projected growth as unrealistic, given the necessity for future regulations to limit air traffic growth in order to reduce aviation emissions. This opinion has been formed from many years of detailed examination of all technology, fuel and policy options proposed by our industry. It is also consistent with the guidance of the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) who identified a change of course on airport expansion as a “priority recommendation” in their ‘2023 Progress Report to Parliament’. They recommend that: “No airport expansions should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place to annually assess and, if required, control sector GHG emissions and non-CO2 effects.” They also advised that: “there should be no net airport expansion unless the carbon-intensity of aviation is outperforming the Government's emissions reduction pathway and can accommodate the additional demand.” CONCERNS OVER ‘BUSINESS-AS-USUAL’ AIRPORT EXPANSION We’re particularly concerned by the expansion plans of many airports around the UK. These assume business-as-usual air traffic growth across the 2020s & 2030s, in a similar fashion to the rapid growth that occurred across the 2010s. However, we're in a position where the climate science and climate action required is incredibly clear: we need year-by-year degrowth in emissions across all sectors of the economy. This necessitates that we fundamentally transform how we travel, and how we fly. Our group includes many specialists who have worked on the cutting-edge technology that will emerge over the next few decades, and it’s very clear to us that technology alone won’t deliver a 1.5°C-consistent emissions reduction pathway. We fully anticipate future policies and regulations that will mean we fly less frequently, less far and less fast. THE FUTURE OF AIR TRAVEL This is likely to result in less longer-range flights, made in large conventional jet airliners. It is also likely to result in more shorter-range flights made in smaller, unconventional aircraft, e.g. battery- or hydrogen-powered aircraft. However, these aircraft concepts are still in very early stages of design and development, and there are many significant design challenges which are likely to place severe restrictions on the capabilities of future aircraft. The airport infrastructure being proposed at Gatwick, and elsewhere, is wholly inconsistent with a significant uptake of such aircraft. SUSTAINABLE, FUTURE-PROOF, INVESTMENT DECISIONS We therefore warn Gatwick about the risk of stranded-assets for public and private finance if the wrong infrastructure is built, and would encourage all stakeholders to consider the benefits of putting expansion plans on hold until the future of air travel is better understood. This is not only in the best interests of the planet, but also of aviation workers who rely on sustainable investment decisions being made, to ensure a future of long-term, sustainable employment. We are concerned that if Gatwick Airport goes ahead with its Northern Runway proposals, it will waste significant financial resources and time. It should instead hold off on expansion planning until there is more certainty regarding the future of aviation, and in the meantime direct efforts towards future-proofing the airport and associated jobs, for the necessary transformation of air travel.